At long last, we have a relatively unbiased random sample of the true infection rate of COVID-19 in New York City.

Last week, the New England Journal of Medicine reported the results of a screening that was conducted on 215 women admitted to New York City hospitals for delivery. About 15 percent tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

We know that the test missed up to one third of those infected, either because of the low virus levels in patients in the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic phase, or because of test failures. The true rate may be higher—as much as 20 percent.

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Originally published on Forbes (April 20, 2020)